Industry Opinion · Off-Calendar
September sales look weak because last year's festival came early
Vehicle makers filed September 2026 sales on 1 October and the Nifty Auto index fell about 3% to a four-month low. But this September is being compared with a month that had a GST cut and the start of Navratri. Oil and interest rates are doing more damage to share prices than buyers are.
−23%
Mahindra tractors · India
+54%
Registrations · 1–29 Sep
−31%
Maruti · below January high
8.7%
Autos in a typical fund
ADWIZR Intelligence
Executive Summary
2
Executive Summary · In 60 Seconds
One month bent by the calendar is not a demand story. Read October and November together before deciding anything.
Structured across seven parts: what the companies reported, why September looks odd, whether demand is really weakening, why share prices are falling anyway, and what it means for investors, buyers and rural India. Part VI is an interactive lab where you can test each claim on the same data; Part VII sets out what to do. Company figures are labelled as filed or as reported. Anything we computed ourselves is flagged as our own arithmetic, not a forecast. Small amber numbers link to the sources in the Notes.
Five Things to Know
What Happened
Bajaj Auto's home sales fell 9% and tractor makers fell 16% to 23%. Mahindra SUVs, Hyundai and Royal Enfield grew. See Part I.
The Calendar
In 2025, the GST cut on vehicles and Navratri both began on 22 September. In 2026, Navratri starts around 11 October. Two companies say so in their own filings. See Part II.
The Share Prices
Oil near $98, a likely rise in the RBI's repo rate on 7 October, foreign selling and a weak monsoon. Maruti's shares are 31% below their January high even though its factory sales rose 36% from April to August. See Part IV.
Do You Need to Act?
Car and bike buyers should compare festive offers and get a loan quote after 7 October. Sector fund holders should check the size of that bet. See Part VII.
The Soft Spot
A monsoon 13% below normal is hurting farm incomes. Rural demand is softer than the car numbers suggest, but not as soft as the dispatch figures imply. See Part III.
Our View, With Conviction
Exhibit 01
The Same Market, Three Cut-Off Dates
Registrations for nine large makers, September 2026 against the same days of September 2025
Bars scaled to +113%. Our calculation on Vahan dashboard data for Maruti, Hyundai, M&M 4W, Hero, TVS, Bajaj, M&M tractors, Tata heavy CV and Ashok Leyland heavy CV.5 Vahan coverage may be incomplete for some states; use for direction only. Slide the cut-off yourself in Lab 02.
Full analysis continues across Parts I – VII below ↓
Part I
These are wholesale figures. They count vehicles sent to dealers, not vehicles bought by families
ADWIZR Intelligence
Part I — What the Companies Reported
3
Dispatches, Not Demand
These are wholesale figures, also called dispatches. They count vehicles sent from factories to dealers, not vehicles bought by families. Retail figures come later, from the Vahan registration system and the dealers' body FADA.
The picture is mixed rather than weak. Bajaj Auto's total rose 5%, because exports grew 32% while two-wheelers sold in India fell 12%.1 Mahindra's SUVs grew 14% while its tractors fell 23%.2 Hyundai and Royal Enfield both grew.3 Exhibit 03 lists every filing.
Against expectations, the misses were real. Business Standard reported that Jefferies, a global brokerage, expected Bajaj to sell about 5.85 lakh vehicles and Mahindra about 62,000 tractors at home and abroad.
Exhibit 02
Filed Against Expected
September 2026 dispatches against the Jefferies estimate, as reported
Bars scaled to the larger shortfall. Estimates as reported by Business Standard, 1 October 2026; filed figures from company filings.12
When we checked at 12:40 IST, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, TVS Motor, Hero MotoCorp and Ashok Leyland had not filed. We will add them in an update.
Exhibit 03
September 2026 Sales Filings
Wholesale dispatches in units, against September 2025
| Company and segment | Sep 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bajaj Auto, total | 5,38,443 | +5% |
| Bajaj Auto, two-wheelers in India | 2,39,771 | −12% |
| Bajaj Auto, exports | 2,43,987 | +32% |
| Mahindra, SUVs in India | 64,092 | +14% |
| Mahindra, tractors in India | 50,208 | −23% |
| Hyundai, sold in India | 57,166 | +11% |
| Royal Enfield, total | 1,33,958 | +8% |
| Escorts Kubota, tractors in India | 14,911 | −16% |
Bajaj and Mahindra figures from their BSE filings, 1 October 2026.12 Hyundai, Royal Enfield and Escorts Kubota figures as reported in the press from company releases.3
Key Finding
The falls are concentrated in two places: Bajaj's home two-wheelers and tractors. Exports, SUVs, Hyundai and Royal Enfield all grew. A broad demand slump would not look this uneven.
Part II
Two events landed together in late September 2025. This year, neither did
ADWIZR Intelligence
Part II — Why September Looks So Odd
4
A Tax Cut and a Festival, Together
Two events landed together in late September 2025. The GST rate cut on vehicles took effect on 22 September, and Navratri began the same day. Maruti Suzuki said at the time that it delivered a record 1.65 lakh cars in the first eight days of Navratri.
In 2026, Navratri begins around 11 October, and Diwali falls in early November.12 So this September is measured against a month that had a tax cut and the start of the festive season at once. Economists call this a base effect.
Mahindra's filing says the fall in tractor sales is “primarily attributable to the festive season shift” and to a higher base from the GST cut.2 Escorts Kubota gives the same two reasons.3
Key Finding
The base shows how unusual last September was. Measured against September 2024 instead of September 2025, Mahindra's tractor sales in India are up 16% and Escorts Kubota's are up 24% (Exhibit 04). The fall looks steep only because last year was so high.
Exhibit 04
The Base Effect, Tractors
Domestic tractor dispatches, change against the stated year
Bars scaled to +50.3%. Our calculation on company filings and releases.23
What October Has to Do
A simple test shows what October has to do. For Mahindra's tractors to match September and October of last year combined, October 2026 must beat October 2025 by about 20%. For Bajaj's home two-wheelers, the figure is about 13%.4 Those are demanding but not absurd numbers for a month that now holds most of Navratri.
Our own arithmetic on company data, not a forecast · Change the window and the October assumption in Lab 01
Part III
Mostly not, on the evidence so far. Registrations show a normal market measured against a year that was not
ADWIZR Intelligence
Part III — Is Demand Actually Weakening?
5
The Same-Day Check
Registrations count vehicles handed to buyers, so they are the closest thing to real demand. Across nine large makers, registrations from 1 to 29 September were about 54% higher than in the same days of 2025.5
That figure hides a sharp swing (Exhibit 01). Up to 21 September, registrations were more than double last year's level, because in 2025 buyers waited for the tax cut. From 22 to 29 September they were about 9% lower, because those were last year's rush days. The same-day check shows a market that is normal, measured against a year that was not.
Slide the cut-off date yourself in Lab 02
The Two Exceptions
Bajaj. Its home two-wheeler sales in September 2026 were 7.5% below September 2024, not just September 2025, and its registrations grew more slowly than those of TVS or Hero.15 That points to something specific to Bajaj, such as competition, rather than to the whole market. That is our inference, not a company statement.
Tractors. Mahindra's tractor registrations to 29 September were up about 20% even as its dispatches fell 23%. But the monsoon ended 13% below normal, at about 87% of the LPA, the fourth-weakest since 2001 according to the IMD,9 and Escorts Kubota cited lower kharif planting. Rural demand is softer than the car numbers suggest.
Dealer Stock
Dealer stock is the other warning sign we look for. When factories send far more than buyers take home for months, dealers fill up and discounts follow. For most makers, the share of dispatches that turned into registrations over the six months to August was much the same as a year earlier (Exhibit 05). Maruti's gap widened a little. FADA put car dealer inventory at 38 to 40 days in August, above its own comfort level of about 21 days, which explains why festive offers are generous.6
Exhibit 05
Factory Against Showroom
Registrations as a share of dispatches, six months to August
| Maker | Mar–Aug 2025 | Mar–Aug 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Maruti Suzuki | 0.85 | 0.83 |
| Mahindra, SUVs | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Mahindra, tractors | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Bajaj, two-wheelers | 0.98 | 0.99 |
| Hero MotoCorp | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Tata, commercial vehicles | 0.82 | 0.81 |
| Ashok Leyland | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| Escorts Kubota | 0.90 | 0.93 |
Our calculation on Vahan registrations and company dispatch filings.6 A ratio below 1 means dealers received more than buyers registered. Read the change between years, not the level.
Compare the two series month by month in Lab 03
Part IV
Because share prices are trading oil, interest rates and money flows, not monthly sales
ADWIZR Intelligence
Part IV — Why Auto Stocks Are Falling
6
Prices and Sales Have Parted
The clearest proof is Maruti Suzuki (Exhibit 06). Its factory sales from April to August 2026 were about 36% higher than a year earlier. Yet its shares closed on 30 September about 31% below their January high, near a 52-week low.7 Mahindra's shares also closed at a 52-week low on 30 September.
The Nifty Auto index fell about 10.5% in September, against 6.4% for the Nifty 50, according to Business Standard.8
Oil is the first pressure. Brent crude was about $98 a barrel on Thursday morning, after trading above $100 on 30 September.8 Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted since the Iran war began in March.12 Costlier fuel raises running costs for families and input costs for makers.
This has happened once already this year. When the disruption began in March, seven large auto stocks fell an average of about 14% in a month.7 Sales did not collapse then either. Bajaj and TVS went on to rise about 25% each in July and August. The March fall was a verdict on oil, not on demand.
Rates come next. August retail inflation was 4.82%, above the RBI's 4% target, and the rupee has weakened. In a Reuters poll, 35 of 61 economists expected the repo rate to rise from 5.25% to 5.50% on 7 October.8 That would be the first increase since February 2023. Most vehicles are bought on credit, so the sector feels rate rises early.
The rally matters too. Stocks that rise on hope tend to fall hard when the outlook turns. On 2 September, the auto index fell more than 3% on a day of strong August sales. This market had stopped trading on monthly volumes well before Thursday.
Exhibit 07
September in Share Prices
Closing price change, 31 August to 30 September 2026
Bars scaled to the largest fall. Our calculation on NSE closing prices.7 No direction or outlook is given for any stock.
Not Everything Is Bad
India's manufacturing PMI for September rose to 55.1, a seven-month high. Factory activity is growing, which is not what a broad demand slump looks like.
The March fall was a verdict on oil, not on demand. This one looks much the same.— ADWIZR Intelligence, on the March 2026 precedent
Part V
For most fund investors, very little. For buyers, a good festive season. For rural India, a weak monsoon matters more than the calendar
ADWIZR Intelligence
Part V — What It Means for You
7
If You Hold Mutual Funds
Most investors already own auto stocks without knowing it. Across 242 actively managed equity funds, the median fund held about 8.7% in vehicle makers and parts suppliers at the end of August, based on the funds' own portfolio disclosures (Exhibit 08).10
For every ₹10 lakh you hold in such funds, that is about ₹87,000 in autos. A further 10% fall in the sector would cost about ₹8,700, or under 1% of the whole amount. That is small enough to ignore in a long-term plan, and no reason to pause a SIP.
A sector fund is different. A dedicated auto fund can hold close to 90% in the sector, and transport or manufacturing funds can hold well over a third. For these, a sector fall is the whole story, not a footnote.
The second-order risk is behaviour. Many investors bought sector funds after the July and August rally, and some will now sell after the fall. Buying high and selling low is how a good sector turns into a bad investment.
Exhibit 08
How Much Auto Is Already in Your Fund
Autos and auto parts as a share of the portfolio, 242 active equity funds, 31 August 2026
Our calculation on AMC portfolio disclosures for 31 August 2026.10 Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast. Add your own funds in Lab 05.
Rural India and the Industry
Farmers and rural buyers face the weakest monsoon in several years. Rainfall in the east, the north-east and the south was a quarter below normal.9 Tractor demand is the first place this shows, and two- and three-wheeler demand in villages may follow if crop incomes disappoint. Better harvests in the north-west and central regions, where rain was close to normal, should soften the blow.
If You Are Buying a Car or Bike
Festive offers should be strong this October. Dealers are carrying more stock than they like, and makers want to make up for a slow September. Press reports already showed discounts of tens of thousands of rupees on popular small cars in September.12
A possible rate rise matters less than most buyers think. Take an ₹8 lakh car loan over five years. A rise from 9% to 9.25% adds about ₹97 to the monthly EMI, or about ₹5,800 over the full loan.10 A festive discount of even ₹25,000 is four times that (Exhibit 09).
Exhibit 09
Rate Rise Against Festive Discount
₹8 lakh car loan, five years, 9.00% to 9.25%
Illustrative arithmetic on example numbers, not a forecast of rates or prices.10 Put in your own price, discount and rate in Lab 04.
If you already have a vehicle loan, check your sanction letter. Many car loans in India are fixed-rate, so a repo rise will not touch them. A floating-rate loan linked to the repo rate will reset upward if the RBI raises rates.
The makers are leaning on exports. From April to September, Bajaj shipped more vehicles abroad than it sold at home.1 Royal Enfield and Mahindra tractor exports also grew. That cushion is real, but currency swings and demand in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia now matter almost as much as the Indian festive season.
Carmakers also face the CAFE III norms, notified on 29 September.11 They tighten fleet carbon limits each year, give electric cars triple credit and let makers trade credits. Industry bodies have welcomed them; Down to Earth argues the stacked credits let makers meet targets on paper while investing little in electric cars. We see the rules as a slow cost for petrol-heavy fleets, not a reason for this week's fall. That is our inference.
Part VI
Five interactive tools on the same data behind this article. Change the window, the cut-off date, the loan or the funds, and see how much the answer moves
ADWIZR Intelligence
Part VI — The Auto Sales Lab
8
How to Use the Lab
Every claim in Parts II to V rests on numbers you can check. The tools below use the same company filings, Vahan registrations and fund disclosures we used, and let you change the assumptions. If a September 2026 filing has not landed yet, type it in when it does.
Reading the Flags
Each figure in the lab carries a flag. V is verified from filings or official data, R is press-reported, A is our assumption and Y is your own input. Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation on any stock or fund. Each tool links back to the Part it tests.
Part VII
Most readers need to do nothing. A few should review. Nobody should sell a long-term fund because of one month against a festive base
ADWIZR Intelligence
Part VII — What To Do Now
9
What Would Change Our Mind
01
Moving festive buying from one month to the next should leave the two-month total intact. If it does not, demand is slowing, not shifting.
02
That means dealers are filling up with stock buyers do not want. That pattern marked the real auto slump of 2019.12
03
That would hurt loan-led buying and turn a market story into a demand story.
04
That would squeeze both families and makers at once.
What to Watch Next
01
RBI policy decision and its comments on inflation and oil.
02
FADA retail data for September: what families bought, not what dealers received.
03
October sales filings. These will flatter the numbers just as September hurt them.
04
November filings. Read September, October and November together.
What Not to Do
Do not sell a long-term fund because one month of sales looked bad against a festive base.
Exhibit 10
What to Do, by Reader
Status and next step for common situations
| Reader | Status | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Salaried SIP investor, diversified funds | No action needed | Autos are about a tenth of a typical fund. Keep your SIP going. |
| Holder of an auto, transport or consumption fund | Review | Check it is a small, planned slice, not a bet added during the summer rally. |
| Buying a car or bike this festive season | Act by mid-October | Compare offers across dealers. Get a written loan quote after 7 October. |
| Existing vehicle or home loan borrower | Review | Check whether your rate is fixed or linked to the repo rate. |
| Business owner buying vehicles for work | Review | Ask whether new loans are fixed or floating before you sign. |
| Retiree drawing income | No action needed | Sector swings should not touch your income bucket. If they do, your mix needs a review. |
| NRI investor | No action needed | Treat this as a sector move, not a signal about India as a whole. |
ADWIZR guidance for general reader situations. Not personal advice.
ADWIZR Intelligence
Key Takeaways
10
Ten Things to Carry Away
Indian vehicle makers filed September 2026 sales on 1 October 2026. Bajaj Auto's domestic two-wheeler sales fell 12% while its exports rose 32%.
Mahindra and Escorts Kubota tractor sales in India fell 23% and 16%, which both companies linked to the festive season moving into October and to a high GST-cut base.
In 2025, the GST rate cut on vehicles and Navratri both began on 22 September. In 2026, Navratri begins around 11 October.
Against September 2024, Mahindra's tractor sales are up 16% and Escorts Kubota's up 24%. The fall reflects the base, not a collapse.
Vehicle registrations from 1 to 29 September 2026 were about 54% higher than a year earlier across nine large makers, but about 9% lower in the last eight days.
The 2026 monsoon ended 13% below normal, the fourth-weakest since 2001, which makes tractors the clearest sign of real rural softness.
Maruti Suzuki's shares closed on 30 September 2026 about 31% below their January high, even though its factory sales from April to August rose about 36%.
The main pressures on auto shares are crude oil near $98 a barrel, an expected RBI rate rise on 7 October 2026, foreign selling and profit-taking after a summer rally.
The median actively managed equity fund held about 8.7% in autos and auto parts at the end of August 2026, so diversified fund investors need no action.
October and November 2026 sales should be read together before drawing any conclusion about demand.
Investor FAQ
Seven questions we are hearing this week, answered from the filings rather than the headline.
ADWIZR Intelligence
Investor FAQ
11
Frequently Asked Questions
Key Terms & Definitions
Wholesale (dispatches)
Vehicles sent from factories to dealers. Filed by companies on the first of each month, and the figure behind this week's headlines.
Registrations (Vahan)
Vehicles registered to buyers on the national Vahan system. The closest public measure of what families actually bought.
Festive base
A year-ago month inflated by a festival or a tax cut. September 2025 had both, so almost any September 2026 comparison looks weak.
Dealer inventory
The days of sales a dealer holds in stock. FADA put cars at 38 to 40 days in August, against a comfort level of about 21.
Repo rate
The RBI's lending rate to banks, now 5.25%. A rise to 5.50% on 7 October is expected by most economists polled by Reuters.
Long Period Average (LPA)
The IMD's benchmark for normal monsoon rain. The 2026 season ended at about 87% of it.
Sector fund
A fund that invests mostly in one industry. A dedicated auto fund can hold close to 90% in autos, against about 8.7% for a typical diversified fund.
Advice Without Conflict
A month like this is when commission-based advice does the most damage. A seller paid per transaction has a reason to move you out of a fund after a fall, or into a sector fund after a rally. Neither is a plan.
ADWIZR is paid a flat fee for the advice. We earn nothing from any fund, so we can tell you that the right answer this week, for most readers, is to do nothing.
The Structural Difference
Paid a flat fee, whatever you hold
Paid when you switch or buy
Measures your real sector exposure across funds
Sells a sector fund after a rally
Can advise you to keep your SIP running
Earns nothing from advising you to wait
Holds no stake in the companies named
May distribute the products discussed
Book a conflict-free portfolio review with Adwizr. We will add up your real sector exposure across every fund you hold and tell you whether it needs a change.
Book a portfolio reviewNotes & Sources
Fact Verification & Citations
Verified: 1 October 2026, 12:40 IST
ADWIZR Intelligence · Industry Opinion · Topical
Primary Documents
September 2026 sales filings to BSE by Bajaj Auto and Mahindra & Mahindra (1 October 2026); the IMD end-of-season monsoon statement (30 September 2026); the Vahan registration dashboard; AMC portfolio disclosures for 31 August 2026. Hyundai, Royal Enfield and Escorts Kubota figures are as reported in the press from company releases. Drafted during market hours on the event day; intraday figures are per press reports at stated times.
Bajaj Auto, BSE filing, 1 Oct 2026
Domestic 2,94,456 vs 3,25,252 (−9.5%; filing rounds to −9). Domestic two-wheelers 2,39,771 vs 2,73,188 (−12.2%). Exports 2,43,987 vs 1,85,252 (+31.7%). Total +5.5%; −8.0% against Jefferies' 5.85 lakh. Domestic two-wheelers vs Sep 2024 (2,59,333): −7.5%. Apr–Sep exports 15,10,701 vs domestic 14,76,434.
Mahindra & Mahindra, BSE filing, 1 Oct 2026
SUVs 64,092 vs 56,233 (+14.0%). Domestic tractors 50,208 vs 64,946 (−22.7%); exports 1,892, total 52,100. Sep 2025 vs Sep 2024 (43,201): +50.3%. Sep 2026 vs Sep 2024: +16.2%.
Escorts Kubota, Royal Enfield, Hyundai, as reported
Escorts domestic 14,911 vs 17,803 (−16.2%); Sep 2025 vs Sep 2024 +48.5%; Sep 2026 vs Sep 2024 +24.4% (TractorJunction). Royal Enfield 1,33,958 (+7.7%; Autocar Professional unit figure used over rounded headlines). Hyundai domestic 57,166 (+10.9%), exports 20,750 (Carlelo).
October breakeven, our arithmetic
October 2026 needed so Sep+Oct 2026 equals Sep+Oct 2025: Mahindra tractors 86,809 (+20.4% vs Oct 2025); Bajaj domestic two-wheelers 2,99,887 (+12.5%); Escorts +15.7%. Not a forecast.
Vahan same-day check, nine makers
To 29 Sep: 12,15,213 vs 7,90,015 (+53.8%). To 21 Sep: +113.2%. 22–29 Sep: −9.5%. Mahindra tractors to 29 Sep: 30,368 vs 25,415 (+19.5%). Bajaj two-wheelers +33.8%, TVS +63.2%, Hero +52.7%. Coverage may be incomplete for some states and for tractors.
Registrations as a share of dispatches
Six months Mar–Aug 2026 vs Mar–Aug 2025, our calculation. FADA car inventory 38–40 days in August (Business Standard, 7 Sep 2026).
Share prices, NSE closing data
Maruti 11,949 on 30 Sep vs 17,294.95 closing high on 6 Jan (−30.9%); Apr–Aug dispatches +35.6%. M&M 2,947.4 on 30 Sep, a 52-week closing low. 31 Aug → 30 Sep: Ashok Leyland −11.9%, Maruti −11.4%, M&M −11.2%, Eicher −10.3%, Bajaj −10.2%, Hero −5.6%, TVS −5.3%. 27 Feb → 27 Mar, seven stocks equal-weighted: −13.8%. No per-share values, targets or stock views are given.
Index, oil and rates
Nifty Auto about −3% to a four-month low (Business Standard); −1.70% at 10:11 IST (HDFC Sky). Brent $97.85 at 10:11 IST on 1 Oct; $102.56 on 30 Sep (inkl). Reuters poll: 35 of 61 economists expect repo to rise to 5.50% on 7 Oct (Business Today, 29 Sep). August CPI 4.82%.
Monsoon, IMD
759.4 mm against 868.6 mm, 87.4% of LPA; fourth-lowest since 2001 (ETV Bharat citing IMD, 30 Sep 2026).
Fund exposure and EMI, our arithmetic
Autos and parts across 242 active equity funds: median 8.68% (p25 5.74%, p75 10.79%, AUM-weighted 9.28%, max 90.25%). EMI on ₹8,00,000 over 60 months: ₹16,606.68 at 9.00%, ₹16,703.92 at 9.25%; ₹97.23 a month, ₹5,834 over the loan.
CAFE III
Notified by the Ministry of Power on 29 September 2026 (Autocar Professional). Counter-view from Down to Earth. Brokerage stock calls deliberately left out.
Open checks before relying on this article
Navratri 2026 start of 11 October is from festival-calendar sites, not an official source. Maruti, Tata Motors, TVS, Hero and Ashok Leyland filings were not available at 12:40 IST. The 2019 slump reference is from general knowledge. Discount reports (up to ₹57,500 on a WagonR, Autopunditz) not independently verified. Iran war and Hormuz timing rest on press sources. Holdings statement to be reconfirmed before publishing.