Market Research · Nifty 50

What Followed Weak Two-Year Nifty ReturnsAnd How Rare Today's Slump Really Is

Q: Has the Nifty 50 ever fallen over two years and not recovered?

Not in the record since 2007 that ADWIZR tested. In all 16 completed weak two-year periods, the Nifty 50 Total Return Index was higher one, two and three years later. The weakest three-year outcome was +27.5%. The sample comes from about four market episodes, so it supports patience but is not a guarantee.

Published as on9 October 2026

A weak two years in Indian equities has, so far, always been followed by gains. The current slump is weaker than all 16 earlier ones we found. In all 16 earlier weak stretches we tested, the index was higher one, two and three years later. History supports patience. It does not tell you when the market will recover.

−9.0%

Nifty 50 TRI, two years to 8 Oct 2026 (est.)

4th

Percentile of today's two-year return

16 of 16

Earlier weak stretches positive 1, 2 and 3 years on

+23.3%

Median return in the following year

₹8.84 L Cr

Foreign net selling over the two years

Read the analysis ↓ See the full table →

ADWIZR Intelligence

Executive Summary

In 60 Seconds

History says a flat two years has been a good time to stay invested. But today's slump is deeper than any we found before, so that lesson comes with a warning.

What happened

The Nifty 50 is down about 9% over the last two years, even with dividends counted. We searched 17 years of data for two-year stretches that went nowhere. We found 16. In every case, returns over the next one, two and three years were positive.

Who is affected

Anyone with money in Indian shares, equity funds or index funds. It matters most if you started in 2024 and now see a loss after two years.

Do you need to act?

Not because of this history alone. Check three things: your emergency fund, how long you can leave the money invested, and how much of your money is in shares. If all three still suit you, history says selling in a slump is a mistake. If they do not, fix your plan first.

Our view in one line

Every past slump turned into gains within a year. But today's slump is deeper than all of them. Use this history as a reason not to panic, not as a forecast.

At a Glance

−9.0%

Two-year return to 8 Oct 2026

8 Oct 2024 start · estimated TRI

4,398

Daily two-year windows compared

Jan 2009 to Oct 2026

+6.8%

Weakest next-year return after a slump

16 completed cases

+27.5%

Weakest next-three-year return

About +8.4% a year

−13.3%

Rupee value against the US dollar

8 Oct 2024 to 8 Oct 2026

19.34×

Nifty 50 price to earnings today

vs 18.40× median at past slumps

Our View

High conviction

A weak two years has not, on its own, been a reason to sell.

All 16 past cases showed gains one, two and three years later.

Medium conviction

Today's slump is unusual but not extreme.

Only about 4 in 100 past two-year stretches were worse. The worst, in January 2009, was −32.5%.

Low conviction

Valuations alone do not make today a bargain.

On two of three common measures, shares cost a little more than they did at the end of past slumps.

What we do not know

Whether the recovery starts soon.

The 16 cases come from only about four market slumps. So the evidence is thinner than it looks. And none of it tells us when a recovery will start.

Exhibit 01

What followed weak two-year stretches: median and weakest outcomes

Total Nifty 50 TRI return after each of the 16 past weak stretches ended

MedianWeakest

Next 1 year16 of 16 positive · best +54.6%

+23.3%

Next 1 yearWeakest case

+6.8%

Next 2 years16 of 16 positive · best +60.6% · median about +20.7% a year

+45.6%

Next 2 yearsWeakest case

+19.0%

Next 3 years16 of 16 positive · best +93.2% · median about +17.7% a year

+63.1%

Next 3 yearsWeakest case

+27.5%

Bars scaled to the largest value (+63.1%). Even the worst result for each time period was a gain. Returns include reinvested dividends.

Data: Dion Global. Analysis: ADWIZR Intelligence.

ADWIZR Intelligence

The Opening

Two years is a long time to wait for nothing. Someone who put money into the Nifty 50 in October 2024 is now looking at a loss of about 9%, even with dividends counted. For many newer investors, this is the first long slump they have lived through.

“Sixteen times since 2007, the Nifty 50 went nowhere for two years. Every time, the next three years paid.”

ADWIZR research · October 2026

The natural question is what usually comes next. To answer it, we went back to the official Total Return Index (TRI) data, sourced from Dion Global. We searched every month-end since 2007 for two-year stretches that went nowhere. We found 16. Then we tracked what each one did over the next one, two and three years.

We also compared today with every two-year window since 2009. And we added three things that matter to investors now: how much foreign and local funds bought or sold, what the rupee did, and how pricey the market was at the end.

The short answer: the history is reassuring. The longer answer: today's slump is deeper than every one of those 16 cases. That limits how much comfort the history can give.

A note on who is writing this. ADWIZR is a fee-only adviser. We earn no commission on any fund, share or product, so we gain nothing whether you buy, sell or hold. But we do build long-term plans for a living. That may make us lean towards patience. Read our view with that in mind. We have given the case against staying invested its own section for that reason.

Part I

How Did We Find the Weak Stretches?

One simple rule, applied to 17 years of index data.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Part I · Our Method

The Rule

We started with the official Nifty 50 Total Return Index, using data from Dion Global. It counts dividends, so it shows what an investor really earned. We looked at every month-end since January 2007. For each one, we worked out the return over the next two years.

We kept every window where that return was between −2% and +2%. That is a fair test of a market that went nowhere. The rule finds 16 windows. The last one ended in August 2020, so each has at least three years of data after it.

Key Finding

Our rule finds 16 flat two-year stretches since 2007. Today's −9.0% does not qualify. It is a deeper fall than any of them.

How We Read the Numbers

All returns are totals for the period. We use cumulative returns, not yearly rates. A −1.9% return over two years is about −1.0% a year. When we mean a yearly rate, we say “a year”.

We look one, two and three years ahead. For an investor already two years into a loss, the next year matters most. So that is where we start.

Today's figure is an estimate. The official index data runs to 29 September 2026. We added the Nifty 50 price move to 8 October. The official figure may differ a little.

Part II

How Bad Is the Current Slump, Compared With Every Two-Year Stretch Since 2009?

Rare, but not unprecedented.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Part II · The Rolling Range

Placing Today in the Full Range

Our 16 weak stretches raise a question: how rare is a slump like today's? To find out, we worked out the two-year return ending on every trading day from January 2009 to 8 October 2026. That gives 4,398 rolling returns.

The worst was −32.5%, for the two years to 23 January 2009, during the global financial crisis. The best was +147.3%, for the two years to 25 October 2010, as markets bounced back. The median was +26.1%. Only about 12 in every 100 were losses at all.

The exact two-year return to 8 October 2026 is an estimated −9.0%. That puts it around the 4th percentile. In plain terms, fewer than 5 in every 100 past two-year stretches were worse.

The 16 earlier weak periods all sit between the 9th and the 15th percentiles. Every one of them was milder than today.

Exhibit 02

Where weak two-year Nifty TRI returns sit in the historical range

Two-year total returns, measured every trading day from January 2009 to October 2026. The 16 earlier weak periods are in amber; today is in red.

How often each two-year return happened, in steps of 5 percentage points

Today's slump is deeper than any of the 16 earlier examples but far from the 2009 low. The two-year stretches overlap a lot, so they are not separate tests. The 8 October 2026 value is estimated from the official 29 September TRI and the Nifty 50 price move to 8 October.

Data: Dion Global. Analysis: ADWIZR Intelligence.

Why Rare Is Not the Same as Alarming

A 4th-percentile result deserves attention. It is the kind of result that shows whether an investor's plan was realistic. But it is not a crisis. The 2009 low was more than three times as deep. Our longer study, Nifty at Crossroads, tracks 27 years of rolling returns and how long each crash took to recover.

Key Finding

Today's two-year return is worse than all 16 earlier slumps. It is worse than about 96 in every 100 windows since 2009. But it is less than a third as deep as the 2009 low.

A rare result can justify a careful review of your plan. It does not, by itself, justify selling or promise a quick rebound.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Part III

What Happened After the Earlier Weak Stretches?

Gains every time, at every horizon. But the cases come from only about four slumps.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Part III · The Record

The Full Record

In all 16 completed cases, the Nifty 50 TRI was higher one year later, two years later and three years later. The weakest next-year return was +6.8%, after the period ending 31 August 2012. The weakest next-two-year return was +19.0%. The weakest next-three-year return was +27.5%, after the period ending 30 June 2009, which works out to about 8.4% a year.

Recoveries usually showed up well before three years. The median gain was already +23.3% after one year. The spread was wide, though: from +6.8% to +54.6% in the first year alone.

Sixteen Rows, About Four Stories

The table looks like 16 separate tests. It is not. One row covers the 2008 global financial crisis. Nine rows belong to the same 2011 to 2013 slowdown, when inflation, high interest rates and a weak rupee held Indian markets back. Three come from the 2016 to 2017 period that included demonetisation, and three from the 2020 pandemic crash.

Stretches from the same slump overlap by many months, so they move together. So the table really shows about four recoveries, each counted several times. Four out of four is encouraging. It is not the same as 16 out of 16.

Exhibit 03

All weak two-year periods and what followed

Returns, fund flows, the rupee and the P/E for each slump.

Period	Weak period	Next 1Y	Next 2Y	Next 3Y	Rolling 2Y percentile	FII/FPI net, ₹ Cr	DII net, ₹ Cr	Rupee vs US$	Nifty P/E
29 Jun 2007 to 30 Jun 2009	+1.4%	+25.3%	+34.7%	+27.5%	14th	−91,177	+1,01,293	−14.9%	19.97
30 Sep 2009 to 30 Sep 2011	−0.6%	+17.2%	+19.0%	+67.2%	11th	+48,992	+7,759	−1.8%	17.85
30 Nov 2009 to 30 Nov 2011	−1.9%	+23.3%	+32.0%	+83.7%	9th	+41,999	+9,570	−10.9%	17.49
30 Apr 2010 to 30 Apr 2012	+1.7%	+14.5%	+30.9%	+61.9%	15th	+64,540	−21,372	−15.4%	18.12
31 May 2010 to 31 May 2012	−0.9%	+23.2%	+53.2%	+77.5%	10th	+74,086	−27,317	−17.7%	16.66
30 Jun 2010 to 29 Jun 2012	+1.7%	+13.1%	+47.6%	+64.2%	15th	+69,170	−21,515	−17.2%	17.51
30 Jul 2010 to 31 Jul 2012	−0.2%	+11.2%	+51.3%	+69.1%	11th	+66,153	−20,492	−16.8%	17.09
31 Aug 2010 to 31 Aug 2012	−0.2%	+6.8%	+56.4%	+56.9%	11th	+66,439	−20,814	−15.5%	17.64
31 Dec 2010 to 31 Dec 2012	−1.4%	+8.1%	+43.6%	+39.3%	10th	+75,099	−26,716	−18.2%	18.68
31 Mar 2011 to 28 Mar 2013	−0.2%	+19.5%	+53.1%	+41.1%	11th	+1,24,187	−72,440	−17.9%	17.57
28 Nov 2014 to 30 Nov 2016	−1.9%	+25.9%	+35.8%	+52.4%	9th	−22,632	+99,330	−9.6%	21.61
31 Dec 2014 to 30 Dec 2016	+1.2%	+29.1%	+36.3%	+54.7%	14th	−30,475	+1,02,919	−6.8%	21.93
30 Jan 2015 to 31 Jan 2017	−0.4%	+30.5%	+30.0%	+45.4%	11th	−42,170	+1,13,947	−8.9%	22.86
29 Jun 2018 to 30 Jun 2020	−1.5%	+54.6%	+57.1%	+93.2%	10th	−69,775	+1,79,624	−9.2%	26.32
31 Jul 2018 to 31 Jul 2020	−0.2%	+45.3%	+60.6%	+84.8%	11th	−63,786	+1,63,216	−8.3%	30.20
31 Aug 2018 to 31 Aug 2020	−0.2%	+52.2%	+58.1%	+75.3%	11th	−46,593	+1,49,810	−3.6%	32.29
8 Oct 2024 to 8 Oct 2026	−9.0% est.	n/a	n/a	n/a	4th	−8,84,085	+16,09,591	−13.3%	19.34

All returns are cumulative and include reinvested dividends. The percentile shows where each return ranks among 4,398 two-year returns since 2009. Fund flows add up every trading day in the window; a minus sign means net selling. A negative rupee change means the rupee lost value. P/E is at the end date.

Data: Dion Global. Analysis: ADWIZR Intelligence.

Key Finding

Every past weak stretch was followed by gains one, two and three years later. The median gain in the first year was +23.3%. But the 16 cases come from about four slumps.

Part IV

Does Heavy Foreign Selling Change the Outcome?

Recoveries happened whether foreigners were buying or selling.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Part IV · Institutional Flows

Counting Every Trading Day

Foreign selling is the big worry of 2026. So we added up the flows for every slump. We did not use just one month. We added every trading day in each window: 4,790 days of cash-market data from April 2007 to 8 October 2026. The figures cover Foreign Portfolio Investors (FII/FPI) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII). They leave out futures, options and bonds.

Both Regimes Recovered

Across the 16 completed cases, foreign investors were net buyers in nine windows and net sellers in seven. Domestic institutions were net buyers in nine and net sellers in seven. In 14 of the 16 windows, the two moved in opposite directions: when one group sold, the other bought.

Gains followed in both cases. In fact, first-year gains were bigger after the windows when foreigners sold.

Today's Selling Is Far Larger

The current period is different in scale. Adding up all 497 trading days from 8 October 2024 to 8 October 2026 gives foreign net selling of ₹8,84,085 Cr, or ₹8.84 L Cr. At the 8 October rate of ₹96.77 per dollar, that is about US$91 billion. The largest selling in any earlier window was ₹91,177 Cr, in 2007 to 2009. Today's figure is almost ten times that.

Domestic institutions bought ₹16,09,591 Cr over the same period, ₹7,25,506 Cr more than foreigners sold. Much of that domestic money comes from monthly SIP instalments into mutual funds.

Local buying helps explain why the market has fallen less than 10% despite so much foreign selling. But it does not guarantee the market cannot fall further. Local buying can slow, too, if investors lose patience.

Exhibit 04

Returns after each slump, split by whether foreigners were buying or selling

Median total Nifty 50 TRI return after the slump ended

Foreign flow	Windows	Next 1Y	Next 2Y	Next 3Y
Net buying	9	+14.5%	+47.6%	+64.2%
Net selling	7	+30.5%	+36.3%	+54.7%

Both groups recovered at every horizon. Do not read the gap as a rule. Most selling windows come from the 2016 and 2020 slumps. Most buying windows come from 2011 to 2013.

Data: Dion Global. Analysis: ADWIZR Intelligence.

The Selling Has Continued Into October

Foreign investors sold a net ₹9,484 Cr on 1 October. They sold ₹4,699 Cr on 5 October and ₹2,961 Cr on 6 October. Then came ₹6,121 Cr on 7 October and ₹12,944 Cr on 8 October.

The 8 October figure alone is about US$1.34 billion in one day. Domestic institutions were net buyers on each of those days, including ₹10,703 Cr on 8 October.

Key Finding

Fund flows help explain the past. They did not predict what came next. Gains followed both foreign buying and foreign selling. Today's foreign selling is about ten times bigger than in any earlier window. Local buying has more than made up for it.

Part V

Does a Falling Rupee Spoil the Recovery?

The rupee fell in every earlier case. Returns in rupees still bounced back.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Part V · The Rupee

How We Measured the Rupee

We measured the change in what one rupee buys in US dollars, using the daily reference rate from Dion Global on each start and end date. A negative number means the rupee depreciated.

This differs slightly from the usual rupee-dollar rate. Over the last two years, a dollar went from ₹83.94 to ₹96.77. So a dollar now costs 15.3% more. Put the other way, a rupee buys 13.3% fewer dollars. We use the second figure.

Weakness in Every Window

The rupee lost value in all 16 completed weak periods, with a median decline of 12.9% and a worst of 18.2% (2010 to 2012). Yet the Nifty 50 TRI delivered positive one, two and three-year returns in every one of them.

Today's −13.3% is close to that past median. In India, a weak rupee and a weak market tend to arrive together. So far, a falling rupee has not done lasting harm to Indian share returns, measured in rupees. But it tells us nothing about when a rebound starts. Our guide to the falling rupee explains what drives the currency.

Key Finding

The rupee fell in all 16 earlier weak periods (median −12.9%), and equities recovered every time. Today's −13.3% is in line with that history, not outside it.

Part VI

Is the Market Cheap Now?

Cheaper on some measures, not on others.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Part VI · Valuation

Today Against Past Slumps

At the latest reading, the Nifty 50 trades at 19.34 times earnings, 2.78 times book value, and a dividend yield of 1.22%. We compared each measure with its median at the end of the 16 earlier weak periods. Our India Market Cycle report shows how company profits and the Nifty's price have drifted apart.

What the Mixed Signal Means

After a weak spell, future returns can be better. Prices have had time to fall back while company profits kept growing. But the market is not cheap on every measure. Future returns will still depend on company profits, interest rates, fund flows, the rupee and the price you pay today.

The history in this article is useful evidence. But it cannot tell you what the market is worth or when to buy.

Exhibit 05

Nifty 50 valuation today against the end of earlier weak periods

Latest reading as of 7 October 2026

Measure	Today	Median at 16 endpoints	Reading
Price to earnings	19.34×	18.40×	Slightly dearer
Price to book	2.78×	3.05×	Cheaper
Dividend yield	1.22%	1.50%	Dearer

Two of three measures say the market is not as cheap as it was at the end of past slumps. At past slumps, P/E ranged from 16.66× to 32.29×. Recoveries followed across that whole range.

Data: Dion Global. Analysis: ADWIZR Intelligence.

ADWIZR View

Today's prices give a mixed picture. Shares cost a little more per rupee of profit than at past slumps. They are cheaper against book value. Dividends are lower. So the market is neither a clear bargain nor expensive.

Part VII

What Should an Investor Actually Do With This?

What helps most is how you behave, not clever timing.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Part VII · What To Do Now

The Real Risk Is Selling at the Bottom

The clearest lesson in the record is about behaviour. Selling during a slump turns a temporary loss into a permanent one. In every past case we tested, gains came within a year. Selling would have locked in the loss just before them.

That message only applies to money that can wait. History is a reason to hold a sensible plan. It is not a reason to take more risk than the plan allows.

ADWIZR View

The history supports staying with a suitable asset allocation through a slump. It does not support adding risk, and it does not say when the recovery will start.

What To Do Now

Check your emergency fund

Keep six to twelve months of expenses outside equities, so a further fall never forces you to sell.

Confirm your time horizon

Money needed within three years should not depend on an equity recovery. The weakest three-year outcome in our sample was still positive, but the sample is small.

Compare your equity share with your plan

After two weak years, many portfolios hold less equity than planned. Rebalancing back to your target mix follows a rule. It is not a bet on the market. Life cycle funds do this for you on a set path.

Keep SIPs running if the plan still fits

Regular investment during a slump buys more units at lower prices. Stop only if your income or goals have changed.

Write down what would make you change course

A rule you write down now is easier to follow than a choice made after another bad week.

Do not raise equity because of this history

Some people cannot handle more losses. Others already hold more shares than their plan allows. For them, this history is not a reason to buy more.

The Case Against

What Could Go Wrong

Five reasons not to lean too hard on this history.

ADWIZR Intelligence

The Case Against

The sample is small

Sixteen rows describe about four episodes. Four recoveries out of four is encouraging. But four is too few to make a rule about markets.

Today is outside the sample

Today's slump is deeper than every past case. Our evidence comes from milder slumps. A deeper slump may play out differently.

Starting conditions differ

In 2009 and 2020, interest rates were cut sharply and governments added strong support. Those recoveries had help. Without that help, the next one may be slower.

Foreign selling at this scale is new

No earlier window comes close to ₹8.84 L Cr of net selling. Local buyers have soaked it up so far. But local buying depends on investor confidence, which can fade after two weak years.

Markets can stay weak for longer than two years

Some major markets have delivered flat or negative returns for a decade. India's record since 2007 has not included one, but the Indian record is short.

None of these points says a recovery will not come. Together, they say this: use the history to guide how you act, not to predict returns.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Key Takeaways

Things to Carry Away

Key Takeaways

We searched every month-end since 2007 and found 16 flat two-year stretches, with returns between −2% and +2%.

Today's slump does not fit that rule. Over the two years to 8 October 2026, the Nifty 50 TRI is down about 9.0%.

Only about 4 in 100 two-year windows since 2009 were worse than today.

Today is worse than all 16 earlier slumps. But it is far from the 2009 low of −32.5%.

Every completed weak stretch was followed by gains at one, two and three years. Median gains were +23.3%, +45.6% and +63.1%.

The 16 cases come from about four market slumps, so the evidence is thinner than it looks.

Recoveries followed both foreign buying and foreign selling. Today's foreign selling of ₹8.84 L Cr is far larger than any earlier window, and domestic buying of ₹16.10 L Cr has more than offset it.

The rupee fell in every earlier weak period, with a median of −12.9%, and equities still recovered. Today's −13.3% is in line with that.

Valuations are mixed, not distressed.

The useful response is to hold a suitable plan through the slump, not to add risk or predict a date.

Investor FAQ

Questions Investors Are Asking

Answered from the data, not the headline.

ADWIZR Intelligence

Investor FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1Has the Nifty 50 ever fallen over two years and not recovered?

Not since 2007, in the data we tested. In all 16 completed weak two-year periods, the Nifty 50 Total Return Index was higher one, two and three years later. The weakest three-year outcome was +27.5%. The sample comes from about four episodes, so it supports patience but is not a guarantee.

Q2How bad is the current Nifty slump compared with history?

The two-year Nifty 50 TRI return to 8 October 2026 is about −9.0%. Only about 4 in 100 two-year windows since 2009 were worse. That makes it worse than all 16 earlier flat stretches we found. But it is far milder than the worst result: −32.5% in January 2009.

Q3What counts as a weak two-year stretch?

We looked at every month-end since 2007. A window counted if the Nifty 50 Total Return Index, with dividends, returned between −2% and +2% over the next two years. That rule finds 16 windows. Today's −9.0% is too weak to fit it.

Q4Does foreign selling mean the Nifty will keep falling?

Not on the historical record. Across 16 earlier weak periods, foreign investors were net buyers in nine and net sellers in seven, and returns were positive afterwards in both groups. Today's foreign selling of about ₹8.84 L Cr is unusually large, so it is worth watching. But on its own, it has not predicted what comes next.

Q5Should I stop my SIP during a market fall?

Only if your income, goals or time horizon have changed. A SIP that fits your plan buys more units when prices are low. In the past, selling or stopping during a slump often locked in losses just before a recovery.

Q6Is the Nifty cheap now?

Partly. The Nifty 50 trades at 19.34 times earnings, slightly above the 18.40 median at the end of past weak periods. Price to book is cheaper, at 2.78 against 3.05, while the dividend yield of 1.22% is below the 1.50% median.

Dates That Matter

Watch the official TRI reading for 8 October 2026

Our −9.0% figure is an estimate. It may shift a little when the official value comes out.

Track monthly SIP inflows

Local buying has made up for foreign selling. If SIP money keeps falling, that support weakens.

Check what the RBI does with interest rates

Rate moves mattered in every past recovery.

Review your plan on its scheduled date

Not after a bad week. Reviewing on a set date keeps your choices tied to your plan.

Glossary

Annualised return: The return per year that, repeated each year, adds up to the total return.
Asset allocation: How your money is split between equities, debt, gold and cash.
Bottom decile: The lowest 10% of all readings. Here, two-year returns below about −1.1%.
Cash market: Shares bought and sold outright on the stock exchange, as opposed to futures and options.
Cumulative return: The total gain or loss over the whole period.
Depreciation: A fall in a currency's value. One rupee buys fewer dollars.
DII (Domestic Institutional Investors): Indian mutual funds, insurers, pension funds and banks that buy shares.
Dividend yield: Annual dividends as a percentage of the index price. Higher usually means cheaper.
FII / FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investors): Overseas funds that buy Indian shares and bonds.
Median: The middle result when all results are lined up from lowest to highest. Half were higher and half were lower.
Percentile: A rank out of 100. The 4th percentile means only about 4 in every 100 readings were lower.
Price to book: The index price compared with what its companies own, minus what they owe.
Price to earnings (P/E): The index price divided by its companies' combined annual profit.
Provisional data: Early exchange figures, out the same day. They can differ from final figures released later.
Rebalancing: Selling some of what has grown and buying what has shrunk, to return to your planned mix.
Reference rate: The official daily rupee-dollar rate published for India.
Rolling return: A return worked out again from each new starting day. Every two-year window gets counted.
SIP: Short for Systematic Investment Plan. You put a fixed sum into a mutual fund each month.
Total Return Index (TRI): A version of the index that puts every dividend back in. It shows what an investor really earned.

Fee-Only. No Commission. No Exceptions.

Advice paid by commission costs you most in a slump. A seller paid on transactions earns when you switch funds, move into a “safer” product, or buy something new to replace what has fallen. Doing nothing pays them nothing. That is not a character flaw. It is how the incentive works.

ADWIZR is paid for the plan. The fee is the same whether you hold, rebalance, add or sell. That is why we can tell a family that the right response to a weak two years is often to check the plan and leave it alone.

ADWIZR

Commission seller

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Paid a flat fee for the plan

✗

Paid on the products you buy or switch

✓

Can advise you to hold through a slump

✗

Earns nothing when you hold

✓

Rebalances to a written target

✗

Has a reason to suggest a new product

✓

Shows the full history, including what does not fit

✗

Has a reason to show only the good news

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Notes & Sources

Fact Verification & Citations

Verified: 9 October 2026 · ADWIZR Intelligence · Market Research · Data to 8 October 2026

Method, data and assumptions · 9 notes

Return measure

All returns use the Nifty 50 Total Return Index, which includes reinvested dividends. Data: Dion Global. All returns are totals for the period. The current row covers the two years to 8 October 2026; −9.0% in total is about −4.6% a year.

Current estimate

The official TRI data we used ends on 29 September 2026. To reach 8 October, we added the Nifty 50 price move over those days. That leaves out any dividends paid in that week. So our figure may differ a little from the official one.

Selection rule

We took the last trading day of every month from January 2007. We measured the TRI return to the last trading day of the same month two years later. Windows with a total return between −2% and +2% count as weak. This gives 16 windows, all complete by August 2020. For returns after each window, we used the first trading day on or after each one, two and three-year anniversary.

Rolling percentiles

For each trading day from January 2009 to 8 October 2026, we compared the TRI with its level two years earlier. Where that day was a holiday, we used the next trading day. This gives 4,398 windows, and they overlap a lot. The lowest was −32.5% (ending 23 January 2009). The highest was +147.3% (ending 25 October 2010). The median was +26.1%, and the bottom 10% sat below about −1.1%.

Institutional flows

FII/FPI and DII figures are same-day exchange numbers for net buying or selling of shares, in ₹ crore. We took all 4,790 trading days from 2 April 2007 to 8 October 2026 from Dion Global. Then we added up the days in each window. Futures, options and bonds are left out. They can differ from final figures released later. Current period: 497 trading days; FII/FPI −₹8,84,085 Cr; DII +₹16,09,591 Cr; gap ₹7,25,506 Cr.

Dollar conversions

₹8,84,085 Cr ÷ ₹96.7733 per US$ (reference rate on 8 October 2026, Dion Global) ≈ US$91.4 billion. ₹12,944 Cr ÷ ₹96.7733 ≈ US$1.34 billion.

Currency measure

We measured the rupee as the dollars one rupee buys, using the daily reference rate from Dion Global. If a date had no rate, we used the last one before it. Current period: ₹83.9399 per dollar on 8 October 2024 and ₹96.7733 on 8 October 2026. So the rupee lost 13.3% of its dollar value, while the dollar rate rose 15.3%.

Valuation

Nifty 50 P/E, P/B and dividend yield are monthly readings from Dion Global. The latest is for 7 October 2026. For each past slump, we used the reading for the month it ended. Medians: P/E 18.40, P/B 3.05, dividend yield 1.50%.

Sample dependence

Many rows come from the same three slumps: 2011 to 2013, 2016 to 2017 and 2020. They overlap, so they are not separate tests.

Sources · 2

Dion Global: all market data

Nifty 50 Total Return Index and price index; Nifty 50 P/E, P/B and dividend yield; daily FII/FPI and DII cash-market flows; USD/INR reference rates. Data to 8 October 2026.

ADWIZR Intelligence: charts and calculations

All exhibits and charts. The rule we used to pick weak stretches. The two-year returns, rankings and totals. The estimate for 8 October 2026.

ADWIZR Intelligence

What Followed Weak Two-Year Nifty Returns
Market Research · Topical · About 5,000 words
SEBI RIA Registered · 9 October 2026

This article is published for investor education purposes only. It is not financial advice. It describes what happened in the past. It is not a tip to buy, sell or hold any security. Past returns do not promise future returns. The 8 October 2026 index value is an estimate until the official figure is out. Market data may have changed since we published. Please speak to a SEBI-registered investment adviser before you invest. Adwizr: Plan better. Live fully.